Summary
| Company & vaccine name | Versus Wuhan | Versus Variants | Rates of side effects | Severity of side effects | Safety & health risks | Antibody levels | Protection durability | Ease of transport | Ease of administration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Novavax (Covovax / Nuvaxovid) |
1st (96.4%-100%) |
1st (90%) |
1st (Lowest) |
1st (Lowest) |
1st (Lowest) |
1st (Highest) |
1st (Longest) |
1st (tie) | 1st (tie) |
| 2. Moderna (Spikevax) |
2nd (94.1%) |
1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | last (tie) | 2nd to last |
| 3. Pfizer (Comirnaty) |
3rd (95%) |
1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | last (tie) | last (tie) |
| 4. J & J (Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine, Ad26.COV2.S) |
5th (58.20%) |
1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st (tie) | 1st (tie) |
| 5. AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria / Covishield) |
4th (63% - 82%) |
1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st (tie) | 1st (tie) |
| China comparison: | |||||||||
| 6. Coronavac | Not recommended (50.40%) |
1st | 2nd | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st (tie) | 1st (tie) |
| 7. Sinopharm | low | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st | 1st (tie) | 1st (tie) |
Efficacy Versus Wuhan Strains (lineage B.1)
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 96.4% - 100% |
| 2. Pfizer | 95% |
| 3. Moderna | 94.1% |
| 4. AstraZeneca | 63% - 82% |
| 5. J & J (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
58.20% |
| 6. Coronavac | 50.40% |
Efficacy Versus Variants of Interest and Concern
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 90.2% |
| 2. Pfizer | 85% |
| 3. Moderna | 83.1% |
| 4. AstraZeneca (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
64% |
| 5. J & J | 61%-81% |
Efficacy Against Severe Disease and Hospitalization
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 100% |
| 2. Pfizer | 100% |
| 3. Moderna | 97% |
| 4. AstraZeneca | 85% |
| 5. J & J | 80% |
Mild and Moderate Side Effects
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 100% |
| 2. Pfizer | 100% |
| 3. Moderna | 97% |
| 4. AstraZeneca (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
85% |
| 5. J & J | 80% |
Severe Side Effects
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 100% |
| 2. Pfizer | 100% |
| 3. Moderna | 97% |
| 4. AstraZeneca versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
85% |
| 5. J & J | 80% |
Neutralizing Antibody Quantities
| Vaccine | Efficacy Level |
|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 1400 |
| 2. Moderna | 1300 |
| 3. Pfizer | 500 |
| 4. J & J | 450 |
| 5. AstraZeneca (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
300 |
Declines in Antibody Quantities
Antibodies have a half-life of about 1 month. This means that each month, the quantity of antibodies drops in half. In other words, by 50%. The lower the quantity drops, the lower the efficacy.
| Vaccine | 2 months | 4 months | 6 months | 8 months | 10 months | 12 months | 14 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 1400 | 350 | 175 | 87.5 | 43.8 | 21.9 | 10.9 |
| 2. Moderna | 1300 | 325 | 162.5 | 81.3 | 40.6 | 20.3 | 10.2 |
| 3. Pfizer | 500 | 125 | 62.5 | 31.3 | 15.6 | 7.8 | 3.9 |
| 4. J & J | 450 | 112.5 | 56.3 | 28.1 | 14.1 | 7 | 3.5 |
| 5. AstraZeneca (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) |
300 | 75 | 37.5 | 18.8 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
Durability : Drops in Efficacy Overtime
Antibodies have a half-life of about 1 month. This means that each month, the quantity of antibodies drops in half. In other words, by 50%. The lower the quantity drops, the lower the efficacy.
| Vaccine | 4 months | 5 months | 6 months | 7 months | 8 months | 9 months | 10 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 650 | 162.5 | 81.25 | 40.62 | 20.31 | 10.15 | 5.07 |
| 2. Pfizer | |||||||
| 3. Moderna | |||||||
| 4. J & J | |||||||
| 5. AstraZeneca |
Safety / health risks
These are listed from best to worst. The adeno viral vector vaccines (J&J and AstraZeneca) have 4 possible safety problems. But we’ve rated the Pfizer vaccine the worst because it has the highest probability of a safety problem. The 1 in 18,200 rate of myocarditis is higher than all 4 issues of the adeno vaccines combined. The myocarditis rate of the Moderna vaccine appears to be lower, but it’s based on a lower quantity of patients. Thus it could turn out that Moderna’s rate is almost as high as Pfizer’s. At the same time, the 4 safety problems of the adeno vaccines are on average more harmful than the RNA safety issue.
| Vaccine | Myocarditis
(Heart inflammation) |
TTS (Blood clots) |
Anaphylaxis (Severe allergy) |
Guillain-Barré Syndrome | CVST (Blood clots) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | No | No | No | No | No |
| 2. Pfizer | Yes - 1 per 77,000 (1,300 per 100m) |
No | No | No | No |
| 3. Moderna | 1 in 300,000 | Yes | Yes | Possible | Yes - 1 per 285k |
| 4. J & J | No | Yes - 1 per 100,000 | Yes - 1 per 79,100 (1,300 per 100m) |
Possible (1,200 per 100m) |
Yes - 1 per 285k (138 per 100m) |
| 5. AstraZeneca | Yes - 1 per 18,200 |
Odds of a commercial airplane crashing: 1 in 3 million (33 per 100m)
Odds of dying on a commercial flight: 1 in 12.5 million (8 per 100m)
Ease of Transport and Administration
| Vaccine | Transport temperature | Storage temperature | Hours OK at room temperature |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Novavax | 2 to 8 degrees Celsius (45 to 60 Fahrenheit) |
||
| 2. Pfizer | |||
| 3. Moderna | |||
| 4. J & J | |||
| 5. AstraZeneca |