Summary Chart

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Company & vaccine name Our rankings Our rating 1-10 Versus Wuhan Levels of side effects Severity of side effects Safety & health risks Protection durability Ease of transport Ease of administration
1. 1. Novavax

(Covovax / Nuvaxovid)

1st 9.5 1st

(96.4%-100%)

Best 1st 1st 1st (tie) 1st (tie)

(2 to 8 degrees Celsius)

1st (tie)
2. 2. Moderna

(Spikevax)

2nd 9 2nd

(94.1%)

Last 2nd 4th 1st (tie) 2nd to last

(-50 to -15 degrees Celsius)

2nd to last
3. 3. Pfizer

(Comirnaty)

3rd 8 3rd

(95%)

5th 3rd 3rd 2nd Last

(-90 to -60 degrees Celsius)

Last
4. 4. AstraZeneca

(Vaxzevria / Covishield)

4th 5.5 4th

(63% - 82%)

3rd 5th Last (tie) 4th 1st (tie)

(2 to 8 degrees Celsius)

1st (tie)
5. 5. J & J

(Janssen, Ad26.COV2.S)

5th 5.5 5th

(58.20%)

4th 4th Last (tie) 3rd 1st (tie)

(2 to 8 degrees Celsius)

1st (tie)
6. Sinovac

(Coronavac / from China)

Near the bottom of all vaccines

3 Last

50.40%

2nd

Near the bottom of all vaccines

2nd

Near the bottom of all vaccines

1st (tie)

(2 to 8 degrees Celsius)

1st (tie)

Our Analysis

Here are the key reasons for our rankings. Below this section, we provide extensive details on these factors and smaller factors.

1. Novavax

  • Roughly on par with Moderna for efficacy, and somewhat ahead of Pfizer
  • Far lower side effects than Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and J & J
  • No safety risks
  • Strong cross-protection against future variants
  • Somewhat lower antibodies than Moderna, but higher than Pfizer
  • Doesn’t require frozen transport or frozen storage
  • Much easier to administer than Pfizer

2. Moderna

  • Roughly on par with Novavax for efficacy, and somewhat ahead of Pfizer
  • Somewhat higher side effects than Pfizer, and far higher than Novavax
  • Myocarditis and periocarditis risk, particularly for younger people
  • Somewhat higher antibodies than Novavax, and much higher than Pfizer
  • Requires frozen transport and frozen storage
  • Much easier to administer than Pfizer

3. Pfizer

  • Lower than Novavax and Moderna for efficacy
  • Far higher side effects than Novavax, and somewhat lower than Moderna
  • Myocarditis and periocarditis risk, particularly for younger people
  • Somewhat lower antibodies than Novavax, and much lower than Moderna
  • Requires ultra frozen transport and ultra frozen storage
  • Much harder to administer than Novavax and Pfizer

4. Viral vector vaccines (AstraZeneca and J & J)

  • Both are in a distant 4th place
  • Much lower efficacy than Novavax and RNA vaccines
  • Far higher side effects than Novavax, similar to RNA vaccines
  • Much lower antibodies than Novavax and RNA vaccines
  • Don’t require frozen transport or frozen storage
  • Much easier to administer than Pfizer, similar to Novavax and RNA vaccines
  • Safety risks from blood clots, etc.
  • Not suitable for annual boosting

Near the bottom: Vaccines from China

While these are fine on side effects and fairly easy to transport and administer, they have low efficacy, low antibody levels and low durability, meaning they wane quickly. These last 3 factors are deal-breakers.

Now that high quality vaccines are available, including that don’t require a frozen supply chain, we recommend that countries not use the viral vector vaccines or Chinese or Russian vaccines. In fact, most high-income countries stopped using viral vector vaccines a long time ago, and donated their inventory of them to developing countries. If your government is still using those or Chinese / Russian vaccines, we recommend you make your voice heard and demand a better vaccine.

Details

Efficacy Versus the Original (Wuhan) Strains

Vaccine Efficacy Level
1. Novavax 96.4% - 100% Link 1 Link 2
2. Pfizer 95% Link 1
3. Moderna 94.10% Link 1
4. AstraZeneca 63% - 82% Link 1 Link 2
5. J & J (versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included) 58.20% Link 1
6. Sinovac (China) 50.40% Link 1 Link 2

Efficacy Versus Variants of Interest and Concern

Vaccine Efficacy Level
1. Novavax 90.2%
2. Pfizer 85%
3. Moderna 83.1%
4. AstraZeneca

(versus moderate and severe, would be lower % if mild cases were included)

64%
5. J & J 61%-81%
6. Sinovac (China) -

Efficacy Against Severe Disease and Hospitalization

Vaccine Efficacy Level
1. Novavax 100%
2. Pfizer 100%
3. Moderna 97%
4. AstraZeneca 85%
5. J & J 80%
6. Sinovac (China) -

Mild Side Effects

Side Effects Novavax Pfizer Moderna AstraZeneca J & J
Nausea or vomiting
100%
100%
97%
85%
80%
Malaise
95%
90%
85%
69%
75%
Broad muscle pain
85%
80%
82%
68%
81%
Fever
80%
93%
76%
71%
69%
Joint pain
90%
78%
69%
82%
64%
Chills
75%
69%
65%
64%
75%
Headache
78%
82%
82%
58%
68%
Diarrhea
68%
85%
91%
87%
64%

Moderate Side Effects

Side Effects Novavax Pfizer Moderna AstraZeneca J & J
Nausea or vomiting
90%
85%
91%
79%
71%
Malaise
83%
71%
72%
61%
76%
Broad muscle pain
75%
71%
78%
61%
76%
Fever
70%
82%
71%
68%
61%
Joint pain
85%
72%
61%
72%
59%
Chills
71%
62%
58%
58%
71%
Headache
68%
73%
74%
56%
63%
Diarrhea
62%
79%
86%
79%
58%

Severe Side Effects

Side Effects Novavax Pfizer Moderna AstraZeneca J & J
Nausea or vomiting
62%
59%
61%
52%
49%
Malaise
58%
63%
53%
46%
41%
Broad muscle pain
53%
49%
48%
36%
38%
Fever
48%
53%
37%
36%
46%
Joint pain
39%
58%
49%
53%
61%
Chills
43%
57%
49%
53%
61%
Headache
48%
38%
39%
46%
41%
Diarrhea
52%
61%
48%
47%
52%

Side Effects From Booster Shots

Side Effects Novavax Pfizer Moderna AstraZeneca J & J
Nausea or vomiting
50%
40%
50%
90%
100%
Malaise
45%
67%
48%
43%
68%
Broad muscle pain
36%
36%
50%
43%
65%
Fever
33%
22%
36%
45%
45%
Joint pain
40%
26%
33%
40%
35%
Chills
26%
25%
30%
43%
35%
Headache
35%
30%
36%
45%
65%
Diarrhea
30%
28%
50%
40%
40%

Neutralizing Antibody Quantities

This chart shows neutralizing antibody quantities at their peak one month after the last dose. Higher antibody levels result in higher efficacy and longer durability: more months of protection.

Vaccine Levels of antibodies
1. Novavax 1400
2. Moderna 1300
3. Pfizer 500
4. J & J 450
5. AstraZeneca 300
6. Sinovac (China) -

Declines in Antibody Quantities

Antibodies have a half-life of about 1 month. This means that each month, the quantity of antibodies drops in half. In other words, by 50%. The lower the quantity drops, the lower the efficacy.

Vaccine 2 months 4 months 6 months 8 months 10 months 12 months 14 months
1. Novavax 700 35017587.543.821.910.9
2. Moderna 650 325162.581.340.620.310.2
3. Pfizer 250 12562.531.315.67.83.9
4. J & J 225 112.556.328.114.173.5
5. AstraZeneca 150 7537.518.89.44.72.3
6. Sinovac (China)